From: USDA
To: Events
Date: November 16, 2022
TOPLINE: With Thanksgiving quick approaching, America’s farmers and producers have been exhausting at work each day to make sure households can proceed to place meals on the desk and have a good time with their family members. Specifically, poultry producers have confronted a variety of challenges, together with an outbreak of extremely pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI), which resulted within the lack of over 50 million birds, together with over 8 million turkeys. USDA, states, and producers labored intently to implement a complete, collaborative, and all-hands-on-deck response to this outbreak and guarantee there’s an satisfactory provide of turkeys for the vacation season, efficiently making certain that everybody who needs a fowl will be capable to get one.
Moreover, the Biden Administration has taken a collection of steps to decrease prices for producers and shoppers as we put together for the vacation season. Partially due to these actions, inflation on the grocery retailer is easing for households throughout the nation. The value of a big contemporary turkey will value simply 2 cents extra per pound than final yr (a 1% improve) and a big frozen turkey will value 9 cents extra per pound than final yr, with the continuing HPAI outbreak, Russia’s battle on Ukraine, and drought throughout the USA pushing up the worth of Thanksgiving staples. Regardless of these challenges, the October Client Value Index Report reveals a much-needed break in inflation on the grocery retailer as we head into the vacations, with meals worth will increase coming in at a decelerating tempo.
Below the Biden-Harris Administration, USDA continues to take each step it may possibly to decrease prices for producers and shoppers.
Beneath are the common retail value of Thanksgiving staples, based mostly on AMS Market News Retail Reports (JPG, 187 KB) for the week ending on November 11:
Contemporary Turkey Hen (12 lbs.) – $1.56 per pound
Candy Potatoes – $0.86 per pound
Russet Potatoes – $0.98 per pound
Cranberries – $2.24 per 12 oz. bag
Inexperienced beans – $1.67 per pound
Milk (1 gallon) – $3.73 per gallon
*Total, this represents a 1% improve during the last yr for these chosen gadgets mixed.
Frozen Turkey Hen (12 lbs.) – $0.97 per pound
Candy Potatoes –$0.86 per pound
Russet Potatoes – $0.98 per pound
Cranberries – $2.24 per 12 oz. bag
Inexperienced beans – $1.67 per pound
Milk (1 gallon) – $3.73 per gallon
*Total, this represents a 6% improve over final yr for these chosen gadgets mixed.
Because the Thanksgiving vacation will get nearer, grocers typically start to supply promotions and reductions for turkeys, together with by promoting turkeys as loss leaders with prices decrease than the wholesale worth. marketed retail turkey costs previous to early November could not replicate the marketed retail costs shoppers see once they purchase their turkeys nearer to Thanksgiving.
The Biden Administration Has Proven Progress Preventing Meals Value Inflation:
- Grocery costs rose by 0.4 pp in October, a big deceleration from the will increase this summer season, and the smallest improve since December of final yr.
- Grocery worth inflation accelerated following Putin’s battle in Ukraine, however we’re now seeing progress as decrease enter costs work their means via the availability chain.
- Enter prices have declined for the final 2 months, which factors to continued progress on grocery costs within the months forward.
- Whereas we nonetheless face challenges – together with a devastating outbreak of avian flu that has pushed up costs for eggs and rooster– the broader image is encouraging heading into the vacation season.
USDA Steps to Fight the Unfold of HPAI:
- HPAI is a viral illness that primarily impacts birds, together with chickens and turkeys.
- An outbreak of HPAI in industrial poultry started in 2022 because of introductions from contaminated wild birds.
- Since February 8, USDA’s Animal and Plant Well being Inspection Service (APHIS) has detected extremely pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) in industrial and yard flocks in 46 States.
- As of November 15, APHIS has confirmed detections in 264 industrial flocks and 356 yard flocks, affecting 50.34 million birds.
- In response, turkey growers have partnered with USDA and officers from affected states to answer this outbreak, together with by implementing quarantine restrictions, depopulating affected flocks, disposing of depopulated birds, cleansing and eliminating the virus from affected premises, and conducting surveillance in surrounding areas.
- USDA can be coordinating intently with its companions, together with States, the U.S. Division of the Inside and the U.S. Division of Well being and Human Providers, to observe, report, and management this outbreak.
Influence of HPAI on the Provide and Value of Turkeys:
- Regardless of HPAI losses, the general provide of complete birds doesn’t look like considerably impacted. Anybody who needs a fowl will be capable to get one.
- To make sure ample provides for the upcoming holidays, the turkey business has been processing extra birds and, in some instances, birds at an earlier age to extend variety of complete birds obtainable.
- It is very important observe that not all turkey processing firms have been impacted by HPAI or, in the event that they have been, to not the identical diploma.
- Because of this retail grocers who contracted with these turkey processors most impacted by HPAI may even see some variation in dimension of turkeys for that model’s processor.
- Nevertheless, a retail grocer who contracted with a turkey processor that was not impacted by HPAI may count on to see no change in product availability.
Methodology
USDA’s Agricultural Advertising Service publishes retail reviews, that are based mostly on the common sale costs supplied to shoppers by grocery retailers every week of their retailer circulars. These sale costs are what the vast majority of shoppers could be paying for his or her Thanksgiving meals and due to this fact signify a more true estimate of the overall value incurred. For instance, a retailer could have an on a regular basis worth for a frozen hen turkey at $1.69 per pound however gives the identical turkey on sale at $0.97 per pound round Thanksgiving. Most of that retailer’s clients could be paying the $0.97 sale worth moderately than the $1.69 worth.
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